How fighting to protect America, UK’s interests in Niger can cost Tinubu ECOWAS, Nigeria – Mahdi Shehu

*Says ECOWAS would act differently, if they were prisoners of history

*Expresses concerns bloc underrating Niger in planned war

*’Not only North but all Nigerian tribes have representations in Niger’

*As Mahdi says attack on neighbouring country is attack on Nigeria

By OUR REPORTER

Socio-Political Analyst Mahdi Shehu has described Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s plans to launch attack against Republic of Niger, over the neighbouring Francophone country’s choice to be ruled by military system of government, as a self-afflicted baggage that may cost him, not only the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) but also make him lose Nigeria.

Shehu, who is also human rights activist and Chairman of Dialogue Group, stated this while responding to questions on an Arise TV’s ‘What is Trending’ programme on Tuesday.

He said if ECOWAS had become prisoners of history, they would have acted differently and not choose the option of war in addressing the Niger situation, defining a prisoner of history as that person, who learns lessons of history.

“If only they recall what happened in Iraq, what happened in Bosnia Herzegovina, what happened in Somalia, what happened in Libya and Afghanistan and the devastating effect of interference into the internal affairs of a country, they would have acted differently, rather than being prisoners of history, they opted to become prisoners of geography where they feel they can look at a map, dissect that map and cherry-pick.”

According to Shehu, “ECOWAS cherry-picked and made Niger Republic a victim rather than looking at the other countries; there are four or five other countries that are under military rule now. When they took over their countries, ECOWAS was not in slumber. They were not sleeping. They were well alive and active. They looked away because there was no clear vested interest around to protect.

“But with Niger, America is visibly interested. With Niger, UK is an interested party. With Niger, they can spit fire for them to protect America and the UK and they are making the biggest mistake of their lives. Let Thursday come, let ECOWAS move their own troops to decimate, to obliterate and to destroy Niger and they think other countries are going to fold their own arms? They would not fold their arms. They are going to fight back.”

Underrating Niger

He said, “And they (ECOWAS) are underrating the war in the manner a camel underrates scorpion.  Ask anybody who knows the desert very well, the smallest insect that gives a camel the biggest headache in life is scorpion. The moment a camel sees a scorpion, it runs like hell because the scorpion kills the camel in spite of the size.

“In this case, Niger is the scorpion, ECOWAS will be the camel. It will just be a matter of days and time. In international politics, you don’t cherry-pick what you want to destroy. You don’t cherry-picking on Niger and it is an avoidable blunder.

“Here is a country, Nigeria, that is multitudinal, multi-dimension, endless social, political and all other problems remaining unsolved, still counting. People are living in abject poverty, you don’t even have money to pay arrears, no money for infrastructure and you think you have money to lead the war because other countries in ECOWAS don’t have the money, that Nigeria will fund this war and Nigeria doesn’t have the capacity to fund this war.”

Asked to give some insights as to why, in Nigeria, Northerners are vehemently against military operations in this Niger coup, he said:

“It’s not only the North, get the demography very well. Go to Niger Republic, get the demography of Nigerians that are staying in Niger Republic; they are Hausas, Yorubas, Igbos, Fulanis, Kanuris, Berons, every tribe in Nigeria has a representation in Niger Republic.

“Therefore, don’t look at it as a Northern affair, it is Northern affair.  Many predominantly Northerners are there but there are so many other tribes of Nigeria extractions that are living in Nigeria, they have married in Niger and have invested there.  Therefore, attacking Niger is not only attacking the North but attacking the entire Nigeria.

“Maybe that is another way of saying that Tinubu dreamed in the spirit of Gideon Okar, who wanted to exile the entire North out of Nigeria. Let him decimate the entire North and let’s see what he is going to get out of it. If he’s not careful, he will lose more than ECOWAS. If he loses more than ECOWAS, he will lose Nigeria.

“There is no way you can go to a war in Nigeria, involving more than 50 million people and you think you can just look away, you will go and sleep, you sip some tea, feel comfortable and order a military excursion into Niger, you can do that. We are waiting for him to do that. We are not afraid of death, let him go and attack Niger.

“Let ECOWAS on Thursday order for a military invasion of Niger, not Thursday but today (on Tuesday), we are waiting for it to happen.”