Tough time for APC as US firm declares: “Washington assessing post-Tinubu scenario ahead of 2027”
*Warns FG, INEC as it says Tinubu won’t win re-election without rigging
*Discloses Nigeria risks sanctions by America if APC-led Federal Government rigs 2027 elections
By KEMI KASUMU
According to the firm, it believes that President Tinubu would be unable to secure re-election without the use of what it described as “undemocratic tactics (rigging)” by the Nigerian government.
A Washington-based lobbying and policy advisory firm, Von Batten-Montague-York, L.C., has claimed that the United States is already assessing a potential political scenario beyond President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election.
The firm made the claim in a statement posted on X on Friday, October 2, 2026, amid growing political activity and debate over the conduct of the next presidential election.
According to the firm, it believes that President Tinubu would be unable to secure re-election without the use of what it described as “undemocratic tactics (rigging)” by the Nigerian government.
The allegation was made by the lobbying firm without presenting evidence in the statement to establish that the Tinubu administration is planning to rig the election or that the U.S. government has formally reached such a conclusion.
The firm said its immediate objective was to ensure that the United States clearly communicates to President Tinubu and officials associated with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) that Washington is monitoring developments surrounding Nigeria’s electoral process.
“Our objective now is to ensure that the United States communicates clearly to President #Tinubu and his allies at @inecnigeria that it is monitoring developments and that there will be consequences for any actions that silence the will of the Nigerian people and adversely affect U.S. interests in the region,” the firm stated.
It nevertheless stressed that, in its characterization, the United States was not supporting any particular candidate or political party in Nigeria.
“Let us be clear: the United States is not taking sides. The next Nigerian president will be decided by the Nigerian people, and the Nigerian people alone,” the firm said.
Atiku connection
The statement has attracted attention partly because Von Batten-Montague-York is retained by former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who is seeking the presidency in 2027.
A U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act filing shows that the firm entered into a Government Affairs and Strategic Advisory Agreement with Atiku effective February 20, 2026.
The filing says the engagement covers lawful government-affairs representation and strategic advisory services in the United States, including policy positioning, preparation of briefing materials, identification and outreach to members of Congress and their staff, and facilitation of meetings.
The contract has also been reported as a 12-month engagement valued at $1.2 million. The arrangement has placed the firm’s public interventions concerning Nigeria’s political affairs under increased scrutiny.
The firm has previously engaged U.S. officials and congressional personnel on issues concerning Nigeria’s electoral process.
In April 2026, representatives of Atiku held discussions with senior staff of the U.S. House Democratic Caucus over concerns about Nigeria’s electoral process, according to reports.
Von Batten-Montague-York has also previously announced plans to engage the U.S. administration and Congress over INEC’s handling of the leadership dispute involving the African Democratic Congress.
U.S. election monitoring
The firm’s latest intervention comes against the background of increasing international attention on Nigeria’s 2027 elections.
A U.S. congressman, Riley Moore, has previously said the administration of President Donald Trump would closely monitor the conduct of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections. That statement provides separate evidence of U.S. congressional interest in the election, but it does not by itself confirm the specific claim by Von Batten-Montague-York that Washington is preparing for a “post-Tinubu scenario.”
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s electoral commission has continued preparations for the 2027 election. INEC published candidates’ personal particulars as part of the statutory process under the Electoral Act 2026, including those of presidential candidates.
President Tinubu is seeking another term in office, while opposition parties and political alliances are also preparing for the contest.
Firm warns against interference with electoral process
In its latest statement, Von Batten-Montague-York argued that any attempt to interfere with the electorate’s choice could have consequences for Nigeria’s relationship with the United States and broader American interests in the region.
The firm did not specify what particular sanctions or measures it believed Washington should take, nor did it identify any specific action by the Nigerian government that it regarded as evidence of planned electoral manipulation.
Its intervention follows several months of increasingly active lobbying and advocacy concerning Nigeria in Washington.
In July, the firm said it had begun providing members of the Trump administration, Congress and senior congressional staff with U.S. Department of Justice documents relating to historical allegations concerning President Tinubu. The firm was acting within the context of its engagement by Atiku.
The firm’s activities have consequently become part of the wider political contest surrounding Nigeria’s 2027 election, although its claims should be distinguished from independently verified statements by U.S. government agencies.
For now, the central issue raised by the latest statement is whether Washington is merely monitoring Nigeria’s electoral preparations—as U.S. officials have indicated publicly—or is actually developing contingency assessments concerning Nigeria’s political leadership after the 2027 election.
The firm insists that the ultimate decision belongs to Nigerian voters, saying the country’s next president “will be decided by the Nigerian people, and the Nigerian people alone.”
The 2027 presidential election is expected to be a major political contest, with Tinubu seeking another term and opposition forces organizing around competing candidates and alliances.
