Tinubu and Aregbesola: Can the two political juggernauts really fight?
By Bashir Adefaka
“What one cannot really say is if political ideology will not eventually cause parted ways between these Titans Tinubu being a capitalist and Aregbesola’s sure belt in socialism. If this is correct and it is normal that anyone holding such ideology must find a way to actualise it, then, it can be predicted right from here that something resembling ideology based fight will split the two friends apart in no distant time.”
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola are two jolly friends, very close allies, depth of which is difficult to imagine. But the politics today in Lagos and story that emanates from the once upon a time stronghold of Nigeria’s progressives is not palatable as it tells more of a centre that no longer seems to hold. The story has refused to confirm a possible fight between the two political titans in Tinubu and Aregbesola but has surely confirmed there is a fight within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state.
Our investigations revealed that the extent of cordiality between the two strong politicians could be found in the fact that Lagos’ largest political zone of Alimosho was retained for the control of Aregbesola even while he was away for eight years as elected governor of the State of Osun. On his return, the entire party structure was said to have been relinquished to him. And that was because, by then his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) that had always operated as resilient opposition while Peoples Democratic Party’s reigns lasted, had already upgraded to the Federal. It thus necessitated that Asiwaju Tinubu would now show more presence in Abuja than Lagos, to enable him face national politics as ruling party chieftain for the first time ever in his political experience.
Another outcome of our findings came from what transpired during the Ondo State governorship election campaign of 2016, when President Muhammadu Buhari requested the four APC governors of the South West (Lagos, Ogun, Oyo and Osun) to join him in a mega rally to support Rotimi Akeredolu as the party’s candidate. It will be recalled that Ekiti was at that time still under Ayodele Fayose and Ondo under Olusegun Mimiko both of PDP. Whereas only Ogun State governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, honoured the President’s request, the rest three of Oyo (Abiola Ajimobi), Lagos (Akinwumi Ambode) and Osun (Rauf Aregbesola) shunned the President on account that they belonged to Tinubu’s camp and Tinubu obviously did not support the candidacy of Akeredolu as Mimiko’s successor. It was gathered that he bankrolled the political outing of the Alliance for Democracy candidacy of Olusola Oke, who eventually fell along with PDP’s Eyitayo Jegede for the triumph – by wide margin – of singularly Muhammadu Buhari’s candidacy of Akeredolu.
One of the reasons the Presidency, in the aftermath of the very keenly contested and most challenging election, decided not to have any issue against Aregbesola at that time was because of noticeable conviviality of relationship that existed between him and Tinubu. Not really as if the President was afraid that anything would happen from Asiwaju but because of what a presidential source described as respecting the popular saying that “one cannot bite the finger that feeds him” meaning that, the action of Aregbesola (and Ambode) disobeying and disrespecting President Buhari to please Asiwaju Tinubu so that they refused to follow him to Ondo was understandable and so they could not be punished for it as it was natural.
To show that President Buhari appreciates loyalty not only to himself but loves whoever commits it fully to whoever it owes, Aregbesola has today upgraded from being a state’s man to national figure. He is currently sitting in the high and very vital office of Minister of the Interior of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. It negates however the claims in certain quarters that Tinubu installed Buhari in 2015 which had since been denounced by the Presidency and no Tinubu camp’s person has rejoined. In clearing the air on it, the Presidency said everybody played a role and that it would be unfortunate for anybody to lay such claim that Tinubu, much as Buhari respects him, installed the President. If anybody was to die in event that Buhari lost that 2015 election, it was Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi. That was the Nigeria’s Rivers State governor that lifted the lamp and looked into the All-Powerful President (Goodluck Ebele Jonathan) of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the face and the plot, as we gathered, was that he and his family would be eliminated after Jonathan returned to power. Great God! Buhari won.
That is all by the way. The core of this work is about purported fight between Aregbesola and Tinubu. We then ask: Can Tinubu and Aregbesola really fight? The answer we got was, “No, Tinubu and Aregbesola can never fight. Although anything can happen in politics but for these two politicians of Lagos? No.”
What really happened was misinterpretation of current political permutations that Lagos State is witnessing. Many believe there exist some good boys and girls that Tinubu had lost to Buhari’s camp, where Kaduna State Governor Nasir el-Rufai is a master strategist, and are today called Abuja Boys because of Asiwaju’s failure to sustain their loyalty in Lagos. The understanding is that, those boys and girls have now built a formidable followership that yearns for a leadership to drive a Buhari camp for their self determination from the old stock in Lagos. If they have got one, Tinubu camp would have been in serious mess by now. Many still hold the views that “if not the abracadabra politics played on the Igbo dominated areas of the state, 2019 election would have marked the end of Tinubu political garrison command in Lagos”. That was proved by the question about difference between the respective votes of APC and PDP during the governorship election.
Expectedly, Buhari camp in Lagos has the likes of Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), Muiz Banire (SAN), Adejoke Orelope-Adefilure, Ibirogba, Opeifa and many others whose followership has grown to confirming the belief that Tinubu’s popularity in Lagos politics would be under threat should any of them offer the desired leadership. There is even the case of the politician that died few days ago, Munirudeen Muse, who was believed never to forgive Tinubu for abruptly withdrawing his senatorial ticket after one term in the Senate and handing it to his wife, Oluremi, who has continued to hold on to that Lagos Central Senatorial seat to date.
Another aspect of the permutation, which really bothers on Aregbesola and Tinubu’s rumoured quarrel, is that the former Osun State governor appears to be doing his own things whether doing so pleases Asiwaju or not. It was gathered that groups Tinubu disbanded he rejuvenated. He looks much like doing his own thing trying to build his own political stronghold in the Centre of Excellence and which the Leader does not approve of. For example, it is the wish and desire of the Leader, Bola Tinubu, that there should no longer be the Mandate Group and Justice Forum and he gave his orders to that effect. These two groups, core to Asiwaju’s political dominance in Lagos politics, have currently been rejuvenated by Aregbesola, who was said to have appointed a chairman for each of them, which Tinubu now went ahead to ban.
As to whether or not this can be interpreted to mean a fight between the two of them remains a matter to be determined as activities towards 2023 continue to unfold. As things stand today, there is no fight between Tinubu and Aregbesola and there is no sign that there can ever be any between them. One, Aregbesola does not have any other mountain under the heavens – after the Tinubu political garrison command that is headquartered in Bourdillon – and he is not one of the Abuja Boys that are loyal, politically, to President Muhammadu Buhari. Governmentally, yes, as Minister of the Interior under him. But politically, no. Except Rauf would prove watchers of national and Lagos politics wrong, his political loyalty is 100 percent to Tinubu as at present.
A source however told The DEFENDER on Tuesday that: “I want to tell you this, Aregbesola and Tinubu cannot fight. There is fight really but not between the two persons but within the political family of Lagos State and the fight is real. Yes, Aregbesola has rejuvenated the Mandate Group and the Justice Forum. It still can never be interpreted to mean a fight because what Rauf has done, much as it is not desired for now, will still be useful to Tinubu in near future and he will still embrace them.
“But, in certain quarters, it is believed that those who are working against the Speaker of Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudasiru Obasa, are Aregbesola’s people. Even at that, it still does not translate to mean that Tinubu and Aregbesola are fighting. At any rate, there is a fight ongoing within the APC in Lagos State, yes. I can confirm that to you. To the extent that even today, Tuesday 9 June 2020, the JAC, Joint Advisory Council to the Governor held a meeting and what they decided was that, there must be nothing like the Mandate Group and Justice Forum being restarted by Aregbesola. That is where the council stands as at today.”
His Royal Highness Oba Tunji Hamzat, late father of the sitting Deputy Governor of Lagos State, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, was Chairman of Justice Forum until he went to become an Egba king in Ogun State while the Mandate Group, started by Aregbesola, was taken charge of by him until he went to become the governor of the State of Osun. What one cannot really say is if political ideology will not eventually cause parted ways between these Titans Tinubu being a capitalist and Aregbesola’s sure belt in socialism. If this is correct and it is normal that anyone holding such ideology must find a way to actualise it, then, it can be predicted right from here that something resembling ideology based fight will split the two friends apart in no distant time.
