NIGERIA: History once more beckons power rotation – Time to shatter another glass ceiling

#LongButNeedfulRead

By Dr. UCHE DIALA

What therefore, makes anyone think that we can not equally break the power rotation mindset next two years, if it will take us out of the present unimaginable quagmire that we have found ourselves and set us on a course of meritocracy in national governance and healthy competition in leadership?

As the political battle for 2027 presidency gains momentum, one cannot help to observe the various dynamics at play, including the antics of political actors and players. Not unexpected, the argument about power rotation has taken the centre stage, even over and above consideration of the performance or lack thereof of the incumbent administration. Indeed, little thought is given to the plight of Nigerians, East, West, North and South since May 29th 2023.

Such arguments and the discomfort that come with it are glaring in comments by both appointees and officials of the administration, as well as from hapless and long suffering citizens themselves to wit: the presidency must not only remain in the South where the incumbent president comes from but specifically with the present occupant.

These commentaries and arguments are rooted in an unwritten gentleman understanding and convention that the presidency should rotate between the North and the South. The tragedy of that argument however, is that it is being presented at a moment when Nigerians have been subjected to the worst form of misgovernance and hardship, unarguably since 1999.

The arguments are being arrogantly presented in such a manner as to suggest that irrespective of whether the administration has done or is doing well or not, and irrespective of the potential harm to the nation, we must follow that understanding or convention. I beg to respectfully disagree.

The power rotation mindset is one that we ought to change and no better time than now. We can not be rotating incompetence at this point in our nation’s life and at the expense of the lives of Nigerians.

It is in a bid to call the attention of Nigerians, especially younger Nigerians, who may have a less than robust understanding of these issues and to begin to attempt to change that mindset that I make this submission. Many may disagree, but this is meant to be a visionary and proactive conversation starter.

For starters, it is pertinent to emphatically state that power rotation between the North and the South is found nowhere in the Nigerian Constitution, just as Muslim-Christian and Christian-Muslim combination is not in our constitution, but we broke the later jinx and mindset two years ago, when no one thought we could or would.

What therefore, makes anyone think that we can not equally break the power rotation mindset next two years, if it will take us out of the present unimaginable quagmire that we have found ourselves and set us on a course of meritocracy in national governance and healthy competition in leadership?

In furtherance of the argument, even if by coincidence the Presidents who have emerged since 1999 have successively come from either the South or the North, not only is power rotation between North and South unconstitutional, that understanding has never been either followed or respected in practice.

This I will prove by showing the spread of presidential candidates who ran for the Presidency from 2011 to 2023, inspite of whichever region the presidency was said to be zoned to at the time by the said power rotation understanding.

In 2011, 19 Nigerians (14 from the South and 4 from the North) ran for the presidency including; Nuhu Ribadu (ACN), Ibrahim Shekarau (ANPP), Dele Momodu (NCP), Muhammadu Buhari (CPC), Goodluck Jonathan (PDP), Patrick Utomi (SDMP), Chris Okotie (FDP), among others.

In 2015, 14 Nigerians (11 from the South and 3 from the North), ran for the presidency including; Ambrose Albert Owuru (HOPE), Adebayo Musa Ayeni (APA), Chekwas Okorie (UPP), Haruna Adamu (UDP), Goodluck Jonathan (PDP), Mani Ahmad (ADC), Martin Onovo (NCP), Muhammadu Buhari (APC), Tunde Anifowose-Kelani (AA), among others.

In 2019, about 59 Nigerians (37 from the South and about 22 from the North) ran for the Presidency including; Donald Duke (SDP), Aliyu Ibrahim (APA), Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Kingsley Moghalu (YPP), Obiageli Ezekwesili (ACPN), Chris Okotie (FDP), Tope Fasua (ANRP), Muhammadu Buhari (APC), Hamza Al-Mustapha (PPN), Omoyele Sowore (AAC), Fela Durotoye (ANN), among others.

Finally, in 2023, 18 Nigerians (12 from the South and 6 from the North) ran for the presidency including; Hamza al-Mustapha, Omoyele Sowore (AAC), Dumebi Kachikwu (ADC), Bola Tinubu (APC), Peter Umeadi (APGA), Peter Obi (Labour), Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP), Kola Abiola (PRP), Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Dan Nwanyanwu (ZLP), among others.

The point and the fact shown by the above data is that the power rotation arrangement which was actually an internal arrangement of the PDP, which I accept has become a convention, is observed more in breach than in actual practice. Of course that is understandable, as it is neither a constitutional provision nor recognised by the electoral Act.

While I understand that the intention was to promote inclusivity and equity, I sincerely think that it has outlived its relevance and instead has become some kind of a limiting factor to our democracy and national growth. It is equally important to note that the Nigerian constitution and the evolution of the Electoral Act since 1999, have enough provisions and guard rails to ensure that whoever emerges as Nigeria’s president has sufficient national spread and acceptability to be a Nigerian President, and not a sectional or regional one.

Furthermore, it is not arguable that there is no proof that the emergence of a Nigerian president from a particular region guarantees or has guaranteed a better or preferential deal for people from his or her region. It becomes even more important when one considers that the power rotation practice has only favored the three major tribes and some particular geopolitical zones to the exclusion of others, and there is no sign of that changing anytime soon, for obvious reasons.

It equally pertinent at this juncture to once again remind us that prior to the 2023 general elections, we had an equally unconstitutional but accepted norm and precedent that the President and Vice president should not be of the same religious faith. However, against wide spread opposition based on founded and mostly unfounded fears, the so called ‘same faith’ or ‘Muslim-Muslim’ ticket flew. Never mind that it had flown before in 1983, but that was still birthed.

That ticket flew in 2023 on the back of resolute and objective arguments by people like me, that, competence, political expediency and national progress should thrump other such consideration. I am glad that it flew, but I also recognised then that that success had opened the doors for other such ‘glass ceilings’ to be shattered in Nigeria.

Incidentally, we are approaching another juncture, not by deliberate design but by reason of our current realities, where Nigerians may be called upon to make another historic decision and I undoubtedly believe, that the argument presented for the ‘Muslim-Muslim ticket’ will be equally valid, except we want to be insincere to our nation.

At this point, to address certain specific argument presented even by some Northerners.

The North, supported and assisted former President Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) to win the Presidency in 2011 after completing a supposed ‘Northern turn’ upon the unfortunate death of President Umar Musa Yar’adua, when he (Jonathan) should have allowed the North to complete its ‘turn”, assuming the power rotation understanding was cast in stone. Indeed President Jonathan equally ran for re-election in 2015, but lost to General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd) (APC).

By that singular act in 2011, the South has held the presidency for longer than the North since the return to democratic rule in 1999, and to the credit of the North, the heavens have not fallen since then.

I do not therefore see how and why the heavens would fall in 2027, should Nigerians, in their majority, decide that the presidency should go to someone of Northern extraction or a someone of Southern extraction other than the South West. So long as that person is competent and qualified.

In closing, I humbly appeal to and advice that we change the mindset, rhetoric and argument around power rotation. So that we do not play into the hands of those who say, even if a President is burying us and the nation alive, we must allow him or her to continue just to complete the turn of the South or North. That would amount to self hate and injustice to our nation.

I honestly believe that the time has come for us do away with that mindset and unconstitutional convention of power rotation, and we have been fortuitously handed an unfortunate but unique opportunity to break that ‘glass ceiling’ once and for all in 2027, in the greater interest of our nation, the same way we broke the ‘same faith’ (Muslim-Muslim) ceiling in 2023.

We would be towing the footsteps of African nations like Rwanda and Ghana who have done away with such retrogressive politics.

We have sufficient qualified and capable hands from both the North and the South and there are many possible combinations based on proven competence and capacity to achieve that for the sake of our dear nation.

We just need to be brave enough to realise it, forge it, jettison the unconstitutional power rotation agreement forged by politicians and focus only on competence and electability, which can be found in every part of Nigeria.

May God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

©️ Uche Diala

druchediala@gmail.com
1st May 2025