How do you measure economic growth in a Nigerian economy left in the hands of Agbero as seen in Lagos?

By SHERIFDEEN ABBAS

“What is more saddening is where, because of activities of the politically empowered Agbero, commuter operators push costs of every ineptitude of government on the ordinary people like it happens when transport fares are indiscriminately increased at the spike of any traffic situation thus creating fluctuating economic lifestyle that makes life unstable in the country particularly in the Lagos/Ogun axis. Agbero should not determine how Nigerians live their lives but that is what happens under the political system of government we currently run in the country and these guys grow more wings seeing that their alleged godfather, Tinubu, is the President abd Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”

How do you measure economic growth in a country where the government celebrates economic statistics while ordinary citizens struggle to survive? How do you determine whether an economy is progressing when the cost of transportation, food, housing, electricity and other necessities continues to place enormous pressure on household incomes? And what does economic growth mean when the relationship between government, commerce and the ordinary citizen appears increasingly defined by revenue collection rather than wealth creation?

These questions become particularly important when transportation and market sectors that easily influence lifestyle and affect the living standard of the masses are left under the control of Agbero – popular Nigerian South West’s usage associated with transport-park touts – who impose informal levies and aggressive revenue collection on operators of transportation and market sectors of the economy.

The central question is whether an economic system that places excessive emphasis on collecting money from people can deliver the sustainable growth Nigeria desperately needs.

For the Nigerian economy, this is not merely a question of terminology. It is a question of national survival especially in Lagos State, a state economy upon which economies of 35 other Nigerian states depend. The role of Agbero has substantially been responsible for the hardship in Nigeria therefore and this cane more clearly when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s answer to question by Dr. Reuben Abati among journalists many questions during a media chat with him ended unsettling Nigerians.

Abati wanted to know if Tinubu would want to intervene in the daily increase in inflation of market prices in a country the people were already feeling the impact of hardship and abject poverty and he replied saying he had nothing to do about that, saying that everybody should go on selling the way he liked but that when supplies came higher than demand, prices would come down. That was happening also amidst fuel subsidy removal and Naira devaluation policy reigns where Nigerian government of Tinubu allegedly “exports crude oil but imports refined products and Dangote imports crude oil but exports refined products”.

“What is more saddening is where, because of activities of the politically empowered Agbero, commuter operators push costs of every ineptitude of government on the ordinary people like it happens when transport fares are indiscriminately increased at the spike of any traffic situation thus creating fluctuating economic lifestyle that makes life unstable in the country particularly in the Lagos/Ogun axis. Agbero should not determine how Nigerians live their lives but that is what happens under the political system of government we currently run in the country and these guys grow more wings seeing that their alleged godfather, Tinubu, is the President abd Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”

WHEN ECONOMIC GROWTH DOES NOT TRANSLATE INTO ECONOMIC RELIEF

Governments measure economic growth primarily through Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which represents the value of goods and services produced within a country over a given period.

An increase in real GDP indicates that economic output has expanded after accounting for changes in prices. It is an important indicator, but it does not automatically mean that the average Nigerian is better off.

An economy can grow while millions of its citizens experience declining purchasing power.

For instance, a country may record an increase in production and government revenue while the prices of food, transportation, accommodation and healthcare rise faster than household incomes. Under those circumstances, the national economy may be expanding statistically while families are becoming poorer in practical terms.

Therefore, whenever government officials announce economic growth, Nigerians must ask: Who is benefiting? Which sectors are expanding? Are workers earning more in real terms? Are businesses creating jobs? And can ordinary households afford the necessities of life?

These questions are especially relevant to residents, workers, traders and transport operators who depend on the Lagos-Ogun corridor for their daily economic activities.

THE LAGOS-OGUN CORRIDOR: A TEST OF ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE

Lagos and Ogun occupy an important position in Nigeria’s commercial and industrial landscape.

Lagos is a major centre of trade, finance, transportation, manufacturing and services. Ogun hosts significant industrial activity and agricultural production, while its proximity to Lagos makes it an important location for factories, warehouses, residential communities and businesses serving the wider metropolitan economy.

Every day, workers travel between communities in the two states. Goods move from factories to markets, farmers transport produce to consumers, and small businesses depend on affordable transportation to maintain their operations.

This interconnected economy should provide enormous opportunities for employment, investment and productivity.

However, its potential can be undermined when transportation becomes unnecessarily expensive, informal charges accumulate, roads deteriorate, electricity remains unreliable or businesses encounter excessive administrative burdens.

Consider a worker who lives in Ogun State but earns a living in Lagos. If transportation costs consume an increasing share of that worker’s salary, the money available for food, rent, healthcare and family responsibilities declines.

Consider a trader who transports agricultural produce from Ogun to Lagos. If multiple charges, vehicle maintenance expenses and fuel costs increase the cost of moving goods, the trader may raise prices, accept lower profits or abandon the business.

The consequences extend beyond individual operators. They affect the prices consumers pay, the competitiveness of businesses and the general cost of living.

This is why the economic performance of the Lagos-Ogun corridor should be judged not merely by the volume of commercial activity but also by how efficiently that activity translates into prosperity.

THE AGBERO QUESTION: COLLECTION OR PRODUCTION?

The Agbero metaphor raises a fundamental question about the difference between collecting money and creating wealth.

Revenue collection is a legitimate responsibility of government. Taxes and lawful charges finance public infrastructure, security, healthcare, education and other essential services.

The problem arises when collections become excessive, unpredictable, duplicated or coercive, leaving businesses with fewer resources to invest and expand.

Where transport operators face multiple unofficial demands, their operating costs increase. Where traders must make repeated payments to gain access to markets or move goods, the cost of doing business rises.

If such practices occur without effective enforcement, they can discourage investment and weaken confidence in public institutions.

However, the responsibility for addressing these problems belongs to the relevant authorities, regardless of political affiliation or geographical location.

The economic objective should be to establish transparent, predictable and lawful revenue systems that support productive activity.

A government cannot sustainably build a prosperous economy by concentrating on extracting money from economic participants while neglecting the conditions that enable them to produce more.

The distinction is simple: collecting revenue redistributes money into public coffers, while productive investment can increase the total amount of wealth an economy generates.

A responsible government must combine both activities in a manner that strengthens the productive capacity of society.

THE REAL COST OF TRANSPORTATION

Transportation provides one of the clearest ways to examine the relationship between economic management and household welfare.

For many Nigerians who travel between Lagos and Ogun, transportation is not a luxury. It is a daily necessity for employment, education, trading and access to essential services.

When transportation costs rise, workers effectively lose part of their disposable income. Businesses also pay more to transport raw materials, finished products and agricultural produce.

Manufacturers may transfer higher logistics costs to consumers. Traders may increase prices to protect their profit margins. Farmers may receive less for their produce when transportation costs reduce the amount buyers are willing to pay at the farm gate.

The resulting pressure can contribute to higher living costs across the supply chain.

Consequently, measuring economic progress in this corridor requires more than counting newly established factories or announcing increased revenue. It requires examining transport affordability, road conditions, commuting times, logistics costs and the effect of these factors on household incomes.

If economic activity increases but workers spend an ever-growing proportion of their earnings travelling to work, the benefits of that expansion must be questioned.

WHERE ARE THE JOBS AND THE PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENTS?

Another essential measure of economic growth is employment.

A productive economy should create opportunities for young people to acquire skills, establish businesses, secure meaningful employment and improve their living standards.

The Lagos-Ogun industrial corridor should be assessed by whether factories are expanding, businesses are surviving, workers are being employed and new investments are generating additional productive capacity.

It should also be assessed by the opportunities available to farmers, artisans, mechanics, traders and small-scale manufacturers.

A business environment in which entrepreneurs must devote disproportionate resources to unofficial charges, unreliable electricity, transportation and administrative obstacles may discourage expansion.

Similarly, an economy that rewards political connections more consistently than innovation and productivity risks encouraging rent-seeking rather than enterprise.

The objective should be to make wealth creation through legitimate business, innovation, skills and productive employment a more reliable route to prosperity.

This requires reliable electricity, accessible credit, good roads, efficient ports and logistics, transparent taxation and consistent enforcement of the law.

It also requires cooperation between Lagos and Ogun governments, because economic activity does not stop at state boundaries.

SEVEN QUESTIONS GOVERNMENT MUST ANSWER

To determine whether the Nigerian economy is genuinely improving, particularly along the Lagos-Ogun corridor, policymakers and citizens should examine seven indicators.

First, real income: Are workers’ earnings keeping pace with inflation and the cost of essential goods?

Second, transportation affordability: How much of an average worker’s income goes towards commuting?

Third, employment: Are businesses creating sustainable jobs, and are young people finding productive opportunities?

Fourth, industrial growth: Are factories increasing production, investing in equipment and employing more workers?

Fifth, the cost of doing business: Are lawful taxes and charges transparent, and are unofficial collections being effectively addressed?

Sixth, household welfare: Are poverty levels declining, and can families afford food, housing, education and healthcare?

Seventh, public-service delivery: Are government revenues producing better roads, transportation systems, electricity, security and other services?

These indicators provide a more comprehensive assessment than revenue figures or GDP growth alone.

They also create a basis for holding public officials accountable for measurable results.

NIGERIA NEEDS A PRODUCTIVE ECONOMY, NOT A COLLECTION ECONOMY

The debate over the Agbero style of economic management should ultimately lead to a more important national conversation: what kind of economy do Nigerians want their government to build?

Nigeria needs revenue, but it also needs production. It needs taxation, but taxation must be fair, transparent and economically sustainable. It needs commercial transportation, but transport operators must be protected against unlawful demands. It needs investment, but investors must have confidence that the rules will be applied consistently.

Lagos and Ogun can contribute significantly to national prosperity by strengthening industrial development, improving transport infrastructure, supporting small businesses and coordinating policies across their shared economic corridor.

Their success should be measured by the value they create, the jobs they generate, the incomes they support and the opportunities they provide to ordinary citizens.

Ultimately, the same standard should apply to the entire country.

Economic growth must mean more than an increase in government revenue. It must mean an increase in the productive capacity of the economy and a measurable improvement in the lives of its people.

If factories are operating, but workers cannot afford transportation; if markets are busy, but traders struggle to retain profits; if government revenue increases, but essential public services remain inadequate, then the economic story requires deeper examination.

The question Nigerians must continue to ask is straightforward: if the economy is growing, where is the evidence in the lives of the people?

Until that question can be answered with credible evidence of improved purchasing power, productive employment, affordable transportation and better public services, the celebration of economic growth will remain incomplete.

For a country seeking sustainable prosperity, the ultimate objective should be clear: build an economy that rewards production rather than extraction, encourages enterprise rather than dependence, and measures success by the prosperity of citizens rather than the money collected from them.

DISCLAIMER: Opinions expressed in this article are entirely those of the author and not if The DEFENDER.