EU rules out full election observation mission for Nigeria’s 2027 polls
By KEMI KASUMU
The development could also fuel debate over the credibility and transparency of the 2027 elections, particularly amid concerns about declining voter participation and public confidence in the electoral process.
The European Union (EU) has reportedly ruled out deploying a full-scale election observation mission to Nigeria for the 2027 general elections, citing security concerns and what it described as the hostile treatment of its observers and officials following the 2023 elections.
The decision would mark a departure from more than two decades of full-scale EU election observation missions in Nigeria.
The EU reportedly conveyed its position in a response to an invitation from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to observe the 2027 elections.
According to the correspondence, the bloc identified two major reasons for declining a full deployment: the worsening security situation in Nigeria and the treatment of its observers and officials after the publication of its final report on the 2023 elections.
Instead of deploying observers across the country as it did in previous election cycles, the EU is expected to station only a small number of officials in Abuja to monitor developments and report to Brussels.
Sources familiar with the correspondence reportedly put the number at about three officials.
Under the proposed arrangement, there would be no long-term observers deployed across the states, no short-term observers at polling units on election day and no chief observer overseeing the mission.
INEC has routinely invited the EU to observe Nigeria’s general elections since the return to democratic rule in 1999.
The EU observed the elections held in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023. Its 2023 mission was described by its chief observer, Irish Member of the European Parliament Barry Andrews, as the bloc’s seventh election observation mission to Nigeria since 1999.
For the 2023 elections, the EU deployed an 11-member core team to Abuja on January 11, about six weeks before the presidential election. It subsequently deployed 40 long-term observers across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Short-term observers later joined the mission, bringing the number of accredited observers to 110 from 25 EU member states, alongside representatives from Norway, Switzerland and Canada.
A European Parliament delegation also participated in the observation of the presidential and National Assembly elections. The mission remained in Nigeria until April 11, weeks after the February 25 presidential and March 18 governorship elections.
The EU presented its final report in Abuja in June 2023.
The report generated controversy after making 25 recommendations covering six priority areas. It highlighted what the mission described as persistent systemic weaknesses in Nigeria’s electoral process, arguing that deficiencies in electoral legislation and administration had affected the conduct of inclusive elections and weakened public confidence in INEC.
The report subsequently triggered protests at the EU delegation’s office in Abuja, with protesters accusing the bloc of interfering in Nigeria’s domestic affairs and calling for the withdrawal of the report.
Opposition politicians and civil society organisations had alleged that some of the protests were sponsored by supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), an allegation that was denied.
The reported EU decision comes amid continuing security challenges in several parts of Nigeria, particularly the North-West, North-East, Middle Belt and South-East.
Security concerns have also affected previous elections, including attacks on electoral facilities and disruptions linked to sit-at-home enforcement in parts of the South-East.
Election observation missions typically require observers to travel extensively to polling units, including rural and remote communities. The prevailing security environment could therefore make large-scale international deployments increasingly difficult.
The decision could have implications for the level of international scrutiny surrounding the 2027 elections, given the scale and duration of previous EU missions.
Other international organisations, including the National Democratic Institute, International Republican Institute, Commonwealth and African Union, have also participated in observing Nigerian elections. However, stakeholders say none has maintained a presence in Nigeria on the same scale and for the same duration as the EU.
The EU had committed €39 million in 2022 under the second phase of its Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria programme covering the 2022–2027 electoral cycle. An additional €13 million was committed specifically for technical support to INEC ahead of the 2023 elections.
It remains unclear whether the reported decision concerning election observation will have any impact on those broader funding arrangements.
The development could also fuel debate over the credibility and transparency of the 2027 elections, particularly amid concerns about declining voter participation and public confidence in the electoral process.
Voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election was approximately 27 percent, the lowest recorded since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999.
Stakeholders have argued that credible international election observers can provide an additional layer of independent scrutiny and contribute to public confidence in the electoral process.
The 2027 general elections are expected to hold in February, with INEC already undertaking preparations, including continuous voter registration and a review of polling-unit distribution.
However, INEC’s Chief Press Secretary to the Chairman, Oketola Oriye, reportedly declined to comment directly on the development. In a telephone interview, he said information available to him was at variance with the claims.
Similarly, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kemiebi Ebiemfa, declined to comment. Messages sent to her active telephone line were reportedly delivered but unanswered.
As of the time of filing the report, the telephone line was unavailable.
The DEFENDER reports that the EU decision should be treated as unconfirmed until the EU or Nigerian authorities formally publish or verify the correspondence and its contents.
