ELECTIONS 2027: Why President Bola Ahmed Tinubu may not win {OPINION}
MAIN POINTS:
President Tinubu willingly or unwillingly implemented the most anti-people economic prescriptions in Nigerian history at once:
– Fuel from N197 to N1,500+
– Dollar from N460 to N1,333+
– Rice from N26,000 to N85,000
– Electricity Band A from N68 to N225
By ABBATI BAKO
INTRODUCTION:
Every incumbent in Africa thinks he will win until he loses. In 2015, Goodluck Jonathan thought incumbency was victory. History humbled him.
“Unless a miracle happens in the next few months dollar to N700, fuel to N400, security restored — the verdict of 2027 may shock Aso Rock just like 2015 shocked former President Dr. Jonathan’s Aso Rock. Democratic system is an interesting game.”
Today, analysis of the political economy of Nigeria from Sokoto to Port Harcourt shows 7 serious, structural landmines against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second term bid in 2027. These are not sentiments. They are facts on ground.
1. THE ECONOMY: THE BALLOT IS IN THE MARKET, NOT IN ASO ROCK
The election was not won on CNN Interview. It is won in Wuse Market, Kantin-Kwari in Kano, Onitsha Main Market, and Mile 12 in Lagos.
President Tinubu willingly or unwillingly implemented the most anti-people economic prescriptions in Nigerian history at once:
– Fuel from N197 to N1,500+
– Dollar from N460 to N1,333+
– Rice from N26,000 to N85,000
– Electricity Band A from N68 to N225
In political science we call it “Shock Therapy without Anesthesia.”WB/IMF clapped” but the majority of Nigerians wept.
In 2027, when a woman goes to vote, she will not remember the Renewed Hope speech. She will remember how much she bought garri in 2023 and how much she bought in 2027. That memory is electoral poison for any incumbent government in countries of emerging democracies.
2. THE NORTHERN FACTOR:
YOU CANNOT WIN NIGERIA WITHOUT THE NORTH IN DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM —
The North gave Tinubu 5.6 million votes in 2023 meaning 62% of his total votes. Today, that block is fractured due to economic precarity, insecurity and stagflation.
Insecurity has worsened, not improved:
Banditry in Zamfara, Katsina, Niger, Kebbi, kidnapping in Kaduna. Villages pay tax to bandits. People ask, “Where is the Commander-in-Chief of our nation?”
Economic pain is more in the North:
A region that is 72% farming, dependent on fuel for irrigation, now cannot farm due to cost and inflation. Groundnut pyramids are gone, hunger pyramids are available everywhere.
Political betrayal narrative: El-Rufai sidelined, Ganduje weakened, Northern Senators complaining of marginalization in projects, budget and appointments. The North feels used and dumped.
History lesson:
No President has ever won re-election in Nigeria after losing the North. In Presidential elections in 1979 late Chief Obafemi Awolowo and his Vice Chief Philip Omiadu in 1979 has been an excellent example. Also, former President Goodluch Jonathan in 2015. Can President Bola Ahmed Tinubu be an exception in 2027? Time will tell.
3. THE YOUTH AND THE JAPA GENERATION: 65% OF VOTERS ARE ANGRY
INEC register shows 65% of voters are under 35. These are the EndSARS generation, the crypto generation, Japa generation. They are not interested in tribal politics. They are interested in jobs. Today unemployment has been 33%, Japa rate highest in history. Over 2 million Nigerians left between 2023-2026. Those remaining are on X, TikTok, mocking government daily. You cannot beat this generation with old structure. You beat them with results. And results are not there.
4. THE COALITION OF THE WOUNDED: ADC AND THE THIRD FORCE
In 2015, Tinubu himself engineered coalition of ACN + CPC + ANPP + nPDP to defeat Jonathan. In 2027, history is repeating, but he is now Jonathan.
Atiku, Peter Obi, Kwankwaso, El-Rufai, Amaechi, PRP, SDP, Major Al–Al.ustapha, Tambuwal—all wounded by Tinubu politics — are now talking merger under ADC and other opposition parties. If they unite and present ONE candidate in 2027, as they did in 2015, the mathematics is simple.
In 2023: Tinubu 8.7m, Atiku 6.9m, Obi 6.1m, Kwankwaso 1.4m = Opposition combined 14.4m vs Tinubu 8.7m. If opposition unites, even with rigging, numbers don’t lie.
5. THE LAGOS MODEL HAS EXPIRED NATIONALLY:
Tinubu’s Lagos model was:
Increase IGR through taxes, use it to build infrastructure. It worked in Lagos because Lagos has ports, industries, 16 million taxpayers. You cannot replicate the Lagos model in Zamfara or Katsina where there is no industry but you still increase tax. You only increase poverty there.
Nigerians now say: “We voted for Renewed Hope, but we got Renewed Hardship and Renewed Tax.”
CONCLUSION: THE WRITING ON THE WALL
Power is not about who holds it today. It is about who people believe can save them tomorrow from economic precarity, insecurity, inflation and generally stagnation of economic interplay or generally stagflation.
President Tinubu came with great experience, but his economic advisers led him to implement World Bank/IMF textbook/pills without Nigerian context as did by other “Global Southern Hemisphere” like Mahathir’s Malaysia, Indonesia, India, China, Brazil, China, Mexico etc. In Nigeria the result is accumulation of mass anger by masses.
In 2027, election will be referendum on hunger. And hunger has no tribe, no party or religion.
Tinubu may not win — not because he is not a politician, but because politics without food on table is noise. Ghana, Kenya, Indonesia, South Africa have been an excellent examples.
The Northern states are grumbling. The Youth are angry. The opposition is uniting. The market women are crying.
Unless a miracle happens in the next few months dollar to N700, fuel to N400, security restored — the verdict of 2027 may shock Aso Rock just like 2015 shocked former President Dr. Jonathan’s Aso Rock. Democratic system is an interesting game.
God bless Nigeria.
Abbati Bako, psc, bsis, Alumnus University of Kent, UK, Political Scientist and Strategist, Member, International Political Science Association and Researcher in Globalization Policy/Formerly Student’s Mentor @Kent University,UK abbatibako@gmail.com +2349077889959
